- Items priced between $1-20 will experience a sharp drop in price
- Wait for the next operation
- Consistency in shadow daggers
- Shadow boxes drops encouraging for picking up Frontside Misty
- As a trader, hang away from those M4A1-S like a bad smell
Market Movements Pending Next Operation
Overall, the market has not changed drastically in the past week. Aside from the decrease in price of the shadow cases, there has been no earth shaking change in the Steam Community Market. The next shake up will be once the next operation is released, which will be relatively soon since the last operation ended on October 1st.
Operations, in a trader’s mind, serve two purposes:
- An operation brings a whole new wave of cases, and these case drops often sell for a lot compared to other cases (starting at around $4 upon release for a short period of time, compared to $.07). These case drops are available only to those who buy the operation and play the operation maps, so a lot of people want to have $6 in steam credit to buy the operation.
- Secondly, there will be people who try to convert their skins into steam credit, which will result in a flood of sellers and a shortage of buyers. Therefore, when the operation goes on sale, all items priced between $1-20 will experience a sharp drop in price. There are exceptions to this rule though as it's not normally the rare ones that fall in price and, as we all know, bravo cases and items with patterns are exempt from this fall.
How It Plays Out
This has happened in all previous operations, and it happens like this:
|Step 1||Step 2||Step 3|
|Everyone who has an item currently worth $7.50 will attempt to quick-sell it for the $6.90 one must sell a skin for in order to get the $6 for the operation ticket.||This means that there will be a ton of sellers and not many buyers, since those who have $6 in steam credit will have bought the operation.||The seller then decides to put the price of their first $7.50 quick-sell even lower and quick-sell another cheap skin, which causes $3 skins to drop in price as well.|
This happened with the USP-S Orion last operation, where the popular $8.00 minimal-wear skin was selling for a measly $6. It took two months for the price of the USP-S Orion to go back up, but those who bought the skin while it was on sale made a nice profit.
Hold Your Horse Noob
My biggest advice for the next couple of weeks is to be waiting for the next operation, and when it goes live try to watch for the biggest sales on the market. For someone new to trading and looking to buy into the economic scene the best sales are always on OPSkins.com.
$8 Skins Could Be A Veteran's Winner
But for you veterans who are sitting on a ton of steam credit, this is the best time to pick up some $8 skins for 25% off. The new operation will affect the whole steam market and cause the market value of most skins to drop temporarily, but the largest impact will definitely be on the skins that sell for closest to $6.90, which is how much an item must be sold for on the steam market in order to buy the new operation.
Notable Market Trends
Consistency in the Shadow Dagger
Shadow daggers have established a consistent median price that fluctuates about $5, and its tier is on par with the butterfly knives. The boreal-forest, night, and scorched skins are priced 10% lower on the market than butterfly knives, while higher tier skins such as slaughter and crimson web tend to be 5% higher in price. A set of vanilla shadow daggers currently cost around $195, which is $50 more than a vanilla butterfly knife, and overall it will be interesting as to how or when these prices will be equated, if ever.
Pick Up a Cheap Frontside Misty Thanks To Dipping Shadow Cases
Shadow cases have dropped another 13 cents, coming in at around $.35, which is down a dollar from where they started upon release. As a result, the AK-47 Frontside Misty (the most popular skin from the shadow case) at all conditions has dropped $1-3 dollars, but it's price is becoming more concrete as time passes. For anyone looking to pick up a Frontside Misty at a reasonable price, I think now would be a good time to pick up the Misty for use, even though it will most likely continue to decrease in price.
Don't Bet the House on a M4A1-S
The M4A1-s skins have continued to decrease in price since the last patch where the M4A1-S got nerfed. The Cyrex skins were the only exception, which changed by about 1%, while the lower tier M4A1-S skins such the Brightwater have gone down by nearly 10%. If you’re looking to invest heavily, the M4A1-S is not the weapon to do it.
Update: Thanks to Cyanide Trump for providing input