If You’re Reading This, It’s Too Late (Market Update 2/17/16)


Alright baby, we're back.

Operation wildfire went live February 17th 7:43 PM CST, in other words an hour ago for me.  This is HUGE for the CSGO economy, for the CSGO traders, and for YOU.  The sooner you buy the operation, the more valuable the drops that you get from it will be.  An hour after Operation, the Wildfire cases alone are worth $13, while the operation itself costs $6 to participate in!!  The AK-47 Fuel Injector, a red (rarity) skin from the Wildfire case, will sell for well above $100 for at least a day or two, if not longer.  NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE MONEY!!!  For those of you who are confused, or if you need a refresher, here’s what you need to know about operations.

Operations are additional content on CSGO, and they cost $6.  csgo contentOnce you buy the Wildfire operation, you’ll be able to receive the Wildfire case, which I previously mentioned in the paragraph above.  The case now sells for $7, and by tomorrow it’ll be down to $4.  The wildfire drops are worth substantially more right now and for the next couple days than they will be for the next 4 months or so that the operation runs, and as the old adage says, the early bird gets the worm.  Playing the missions on the operation can get you more drops, and if you happen to level up while you have the pass, you have a chance of getting a super rare drop.  By grinding out the missions, you can get skins before anyone else, and you can profit heavily from this.  Essentially, it’s free money!!!

Operations, in a trader’s mind, serve two purposes:

  1. An operation brings a whole new wave of cases, skins, and opportunities for profit. These case drops often sell for a lot compared to other cases (starting at around $4 for a short period of time, csgo skins 1compared to $.07). These case drops are available only to those who buy the operation and play the operation maps, so a lot of people want to have $6 in steam credit to buy the operation.
  2. Secondly, there will be people who try to convert their skins into steam credit, which will result in a flood of sellers and a shortage of buyers. Therefore, when the csgo skins 2operation goes on sale, all items priced between $1-20 will experience a sharp drop in price. There are exceptions to this rule though as it's not normally the rare ones that fall in price and, as we all know, bravo cases and items with patterns are exempt from this fall. Thus, it’s the time to buy cheap skins. 

For more operation tips, check out an article that I wrote back in November that goes super in-depth about the effects of the new operation.  The Wildfire Operation will be running until June 17th, so the entire community will be all over it soon enough.  (Read: AS NEXT OPERATION APPROACHES, DON’T LOSE OUT ON THE MARKET DIP)

Enough of the boring stuff, let’s get into the real meat of this market update!

The Wildfire Case

First off, if I haven’t made it abundantly clear yet, if you get a wildfire case you should sell it.  Period.  However, if you are wildfire csgo casepossessed to open a wildfire case in hopes of getting a rare skin or—even better—one of the brand new bowie knives, then I would highly recommend selling it sooner rather than later.  The price will only go down as more and more people acquire these skins, so capitalize on it while you can!!! Set yourself up for success, and hope that Gaben or RNG will do the rest (i.e. you can grind for skins as much as you want, but a lot of profiting off of drops is random luck).

As far as the bowie knife goes, the community has known about it for a long time but we have no idea what its value will be.  My guess is that it will settle in a tier similar to the shadow daggers, but that’s just my guess.  As we get some bowie knives revealed from the cases and more come onto the market, we’ll see what the price turns out to be.  For now, stay away from buying any of the new skins or bowie knives until the prices normalize, at least if you’re trying to make a profit.

Here’s the update for the rest of the market, if you’re still looking for long term profits or for trends looking towards the future!!

THE MONEYMAKERS- Keep in mind that these prices are from the night of February 17th, and thus some of these skins will drop even further in price; but once it starts trending back up, I would not count on the prices to dip again.  Buy low and sell high, that’s all there is to it.  Here are some skins you should buy.

(I took several skins in the $5-12 price range and compared their deflation in value; the best skins to buy have an average of 30% profit, assuming you sell once it goes back to face value, and these are listed below).

AK-47 Point Disarray (Field-tested)

AK-47 Point DisarrayWith an initial price of $12.50 and selling right now (4 hours after the patch was released) for $8.31, the Point Disarray not only takes the cake for the newest skin on the list, but also the best deal.  While I would not expect these low prices to continue, it was the best value that I have seen on the community market of all the skins $5-$9 skins I’ve looked through.  It’s a cool skin in-game, as most AK-47 skins are, and if you’re looking to see some massive profits in 4 months, I would recommend buying some of these.

USP-S Orion

USP-S OrionThe USP-S Orion is a textbook example of an excellent skin to buy as soon as an operation is released.  Before the operation, Factory-New Orions were selling for $11.00, and now that people are trying to buy the operation passes the FN Orion currently sells for around $8.  Additionally, the Minimal-Wear

Orion was around $7.50, and has dropped down to $5.50.  If you’re looking to buy some skins and turn them around for 30% profit in a few months, the Orion is the skin to do it with.

Glock-18 Water Elemental (Factory-New)

Glock-18 Water Elemental (Factory-New)Even more astonishing than the USP-S is the Water Elemental, which was previously $6.50 and now sells for $4.50.  That’s nearly 30% profit if it goes back up to face value in 4 months!  These types of deals work well with default pistols because almost everyone has a default pistol skin they love, but they’ll sell it if they think that there’s more money to be had in the operation (which there is), and there’s always a high demand for default pistol skins so someone will buy it.

AK-47 Frontside Misty

AK-47 Frontside MistyThis is by far one of my favorite skins in the game, and with the new operation, the Field-tested Frontside Misty Field dropped from $9.50 to $7.00, and Minimal-Wear dropped from $9 to $6.50.  If you’re not looking to get the Point Disarray or too many people started buying those and the price went up, the Frontside Misty is always a good bet.



M4A1-S Guardian (Factory-New)

Going from $7.75 to $5.50 isn’t incredible, but it’s nothing to laugh at either.  The M4A1-S guardian is a fairly cool skin, and with value which is bound to go up, I would look to buy one as the prices drop lower and more people try to buy the operation.

M4A4 Dragon King (Minimal-Wear)

M4A4 Dragon KingWhile $5.15 to $3.50 may not seem like a lot, it’s more than 30% off, and on one of the coolest skins you can get for under $5!! While I may be partial since the Dragon King was my first skin ever, I would recommend buying at least one because the Dragon King will never go out of style, ensuring that the price will always go back up and most likely keep trending upwards.

For this operation, I challenge you to put a plan together to grow your wallet, steam inventory, or both in the wake of the new operation.  If I had to choose between the operation hype and the predictable market trends, I would say don’t buy into the hype since the operations are all luck.  However, the missions in the operation are fun, and at the very least a couple cases will let you break even, and there’s always a chance that you’ll get the drop of a lifetime.  That’s all I have for this market update, so get out there and make money!

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