Woah.. what just happened?! – Market Update 1/6/16

Trading’s been rough.  The Steam Guard notifications significantly slowed down the trading process, especially for those who didn’t have e-mail notifications. Between the Steam Sale and the many difficulties that many CSGO traders and gamblers have been facing, there’s been a lot of downward movement in the CSGO market.  If you haven’t yet tried to trade with the new system, it’s difficult to get used to, and I myself had to wait 72 hours for every trade for an entire week.  I learned the hard way that cancelling a trade was very bad, and restricted trading for a week was enough punishment for me to learn not to do that in the future.

Navigating the new Steam Community Market

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For those of you who are lost, here are a few tips to navigating the new Steam Community Market:

Setting Up Steam Guard

pre_1324904535__steam-guardFirst things first, enable Steam Guard. Just do it.  If you try to fight with Gaben, you will lose.  Once you enable Steam Guard for the first time, you will not be able to access the community market for 15 days.  There is also a 72 hour waiting time on trades if you do not have notifications enabled, which is very irritating, and addressed below.

Additionally, when you log into a new device you have to confirm it with Steam Guard and you will not be able to trade from that device for a week.  This applies to phones, laptops, web browsers, etc.  So if you need something done fast, going to your local library isn’t gonna help.

 

Enable Trade Notifications

promo_02This affected the most people. Most CSGO traders/players had instant steam trades since it was simple and very few people ever got hacked, so re-enabling notifications was very different.  This means that after a trade is made, you have to go confirm it either through the Steam app or through your e-mail, or both.  Previously Valve would not help you unless you had this enabled, but I suppose they got sick of everyone complaining after getting scammed.  Turn on Steam Guard Notifications. Period.  If you're still confused, visit either wikihow or the official announcement that Steam released in early December:

http://www.wikihow.com/Enable-Steam-Guard

https://support.steampowered.com/kb_article.php?ref=4020-ALZM-5519

Don’t Cancel Your Trades

Just don’t do it. Even if you’re having second thoughts or your skins went up in buck, a buck or two is not worth the 7-day trade ban you get for cancelling a trade.  The only time you should cancel your trade is if you realize that you’re about to get scammed, and if that’s the case then Steam has just saved you.  And given you a 7 day trade ban for cancelling your trade.  So yeah, when in doubt wait it out.

I Still Can’t Trade?

Steam trading or access to the Community Market can be blocked for several reasons. Here’s a few just in case you’ve overlooked something, and if you don’t see it here I would suggest checking the forums.

  • Limited User Accounts (spammers, phishers) cannot access certain features on Steam. If you haven’t done these, then don’t worry about it.  You would know if you have.
  • Newly authorized devices are unable to trade for 7 days. If you didn’t read it up there, you know it now.  Don’t worry, I was confused too.
  • Reset Password: If you reset your password, you will not be able to trade or access the community market for 7 days. R.I.P. inventory.
  • You have to have a purchase that is older than 30 days old in order to access the community market. This was in place before Steam Guard, but it’s important to know this especially if you’re looking to spend that Christmas money on your first big buy.
  • Adding a new source of payment, such as a credit card, will restrict the community market for 30 days as well.
  • Refunds: if you’ve refunded something on your steam account, you won’t be able to use the Community Market for 7 days.
  • E-Mail change: If you’ve changed your e-mail, you will not be able to trade for 5 days.

Alright, I think that about covers just about everything you need to know about Steam Guard trading.  Yes, it is a hassle, and yes it has negatively impacted a lot of players in the community.  However, Steam Guard looks like it’s here to stay.  When Steam Guard first came out prices dropped hard, but now most skins are on the rise.  One thing to note is that the market as a whole hit rock bottom on December 22nd, and all the prices shot back up on Christmas Eve, December 24th.  Everyone has had time to adjust to the new Steam Guard settings, and so the initial panic is now over.  A lot of the dust has settled, and here’s the first market update for the beginning of 2016.

Our Bread and Butter

AWP Asiimov (Field-Tested)

Z0mRjXVThe last time we checked up on this bad boy, it was going for less than $35. The AWP Asiimov FT has been on the rise after bottoming out at $33 on December 22nd, and has risen all the way to $38.  I would expect it to peak around $39 with $1 fluctuations.

Now would be a good time to sell if you picked one up when it was cheap either recently or back in early December.

AK-47 Redline (Field-Tested)

be47dac6e8e1972108adf03a6d6b33b9The staple of any beginner’s CSGO inventory, the AK-47 Redline is currently going for barely under $5. With the new season of professional Counter-Strike just around the corner, I would expect the value of the AK-47 Redline FT to keep climbing.  If you’re looking for a good deal then the Redline is a good buy, but it’s too late to make any huge profits off of it.

Keep in mind that since the ak-47 Redline is so popular, its price fluctuates hourly so look for a low price and pounce on the best deal.

Glock-18 Water Elemental (Minimal-Wear)

Glock-18 Water Elemental (Minimal-Wear)Currently the most popular Glock-18 skin, the Water Elemental is a refreshing change from the stock Glock. Currently going for $4.25, the best time to buy would have been two weeks ago when it bottomed out at $3.50.

The second best time to buy it would be after the next wave of deflation hits because it is a very popular skin and always bounces back because it looks so different from the default Glock-18.

The Revolver Case: Was It Really Worth It?

R8 Revolver Skins

R8 Revolver SkinsNerfed back to CSGO’s reasonable standards, the R8 Revolver skins have dropped to where many skins before it have gone. The R8 Revolved Fade Field-tested currently sells for $6.50, a sharp drop-off from its pre-nerf $20 value.  The R8 Revolver Bone-Mask is worth less than most dropped skins, coming in at $.04.  That’s rough.  The R8 Revolver Amber Fade (FT), only acquired through leveling up or buying it, currently sells for $1.66.  This isn’t too bad, but not too great either.  If you happen to get an Amber Fade, I would recommend selling it off.

As for all the other R8 Revolver skins, there’s hardly much value in buying them, and unless Valve hints at buffing the weapon, I would doubt it’s worth investing in.

AK-47 Point Disarray

571926359_preview_2015-12-09_08-15-52One of the most interesting weapons from the Revolver case, it is a purple that is yet to establish a solid price. It initially sold for over $20, as most new weapons do, before slowly declining.  However, since Christmas, its price has been fluctuating the most of any skin.  Last week, at the end of December, the AK-47 Point Disarray (Field-Tested) was selling for $16 before dropping all the way down to $12.00 between January 2nd and 3rd, and then climbed back up to $16 on January 5th.  Currently (Jan 6th), it sits right at $14.  Quite the volatile price, I would expect it to hedge down rather than up in the future.  However, if you’re a daily trader and find a good deal, the AK-47 Point Disarray is for you.  Just keep in mind that buying it off the Community Market might not be the best idea, since market weapons are untradeable for a short time.

Skin of the Week - The M4A4 Dragon King

AK-47 Point DisarrayThe M4A4 Dragon King has had a strange journey the past month. Field-tested versions were consistently selling for over $5 a month ago (Dec 6), but during Steam Guard they dropped below $4, and then shot back up to its initial price of $5.50, before plunging back down to $3.80 on January 3rd. As of writing this, the Dragon King sells for $4.50, and I would expect the price to dip once more before going on the rise.  Try to pick one up at any price below $4.75, as the Dragon King will undoubtedly go back up to $5.50 in the near future because it is one of the coolest rifle skins in the game and yet is still very cheap.  It is the Redline of the CT side, so expect the M4A4 Dragon King prices to fluctuate regularly.

That’s all I have for this week, and I hope you’re re-acclimating to the trading scene well.  Overall, the market has been through its ups and downs, and quick-selling has made some of the prices dip and rise in a short amount of time.  Also, because of the volatile market, it seems like more and more people are going to OPSkins rather than the community market to do their buying and selling, and thus it’s been harder to get a good deal on OPSkins.  Nevertheless, the economy rolls on, and it’s bound to be another great year.  Good luck in a crazy market, and as always, don’t troll my solo-queue.

1 Response

  1. Halon
    Very interesting read, thank you.

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